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Vótaí cliste a athróidh toghchán na hEorpa ó thuaidh

| Dáithí Anraí | ,

Ciarán Ó Pronntaigh

Bhí am ann agus bhí torthaí thoghchán na hEorpa measartha intuartha ó thuaidh – beirt Aontachtaithe agus Náisiúnaí amháin. Ceart go leor, d’athraigh na haghaidheanna ó am go chéile ach mhair an fhoirmle sin go measartha daingean go dtí anois. Ach, maidir lena lán rudaí a d’eascair as an Bhreatimeacht, tá faill ag vótálaithe an chothromóid sin a chaitheamh i dtraipisí an iarraidh seo.

Toghchán do Pharlaimint na hEorpa atá ann, ar ndóigh, agus bheifí ag dréim le béim níos mó ar an Eoraip ná mar a bhí le linn na dtoghchán áitiúil ag tús na míosa. Déarfaidh daoine searbhasacha go bhfuil daoine bréan den Bhreatimeacht faoin am seo ach measaim nach ndéanfaidh siad an oiread sin dearmaid de nuair a smaoiníonn siad ar na hainimpleachtaí a shiúlann leis agus an chéad deis le fada acu a mbarúil a chur in iúl.

Ná déantar dearmad go gcaithfí na sé chontae amach as an Aontas Eorpach in éadan a gcos nó níor vótáil ach 44% ar son an Bhreatimeachta. Má thugtar aird ar na pobalbhreitheanna ó shin, tá an líon sin ag dul i laghad. Táthar ag caint faoi dhá dtrian den phobal a bheith ina choinne faoin am seo. Agus sin an áit a bhfuil deis ann don suaitheadh, má tá suaitheadh le bheith ann.

Ag amharc ar na figiúirí ar pháipéar, bheifí ag súil leis go dtoghfaí Martina Anderson agus Diane Dodds, Sinn Féin agus an DUP, san ord sin.

De réir na pobalbhreithe is déanaí ó Lucid Talk, ba chóir go dtoghfaí Martina Anderson ar an chéad chuntas mar a tharla in 2014. Bhí vóta an DUP thíos ag 20.9% ag an vóta Eorpach deireanach ach bhí vóta pearsanta measartha ard ag Jim Allister ón TUV, an t-iarfheisire Eorpach a thréig an DUP. Beidh le feiceáil an mbeidh Allister ábalta a vóta pearsanta féin a chosaint i ndiaidh dó leathchuid dá chuid comhairleoirí a chailleadh sna toghcháin áitiúla.

An tríú suíochán an áit a mbeidh an chraic. Cé go bhfuair an UUP 16.2% den vóta sna toghcháin áitiúla, ní éiríonn chomh maith leo sa vóta Eorpach. Ní bhfuair Jim Nicholson ón pháirtí ach 13.3% de vótaí céadrogha in 2014 agus b’éigean dó fanacht go dtí an t-ochtú cuntas sular toghadh é. De réir Lucid Talk, tá vóta iarrthóir an pháirtí, Danny Kennedy, thíos ag 10.6%.

In 2014, bhí an SDLP 43,000 vóta ar chúl Nicholson ach mheall an t-iarrthóir, Alex Attwood, 28,000 vóta aistrithe ó Alliance. Aistríonn an dá pháirtí sin vótaí dá chéile ar bhonn níos réidhe ná mar a aistríonn vótálaithe an SDLP agus Sinn Féin, mar shampla. An mbeidh vótaí ag dul an bealach eile an iarraidh seo agus iarrthóir láidir amhail Naomi Long, ceannaire an pháirtí agus duine a bhfuil gean an phobail uirthi mar gheall ar chomh réasúnta léi, ar a laghad i measc daoine ‘réasúnta’?

An bhfuil seachrán ar dhaoine atá ag lua Pháirtí an Alliance mar bhuaiteoirí an tríú háit? B’fhéidir é, ach d’éirigh go geal leo cúpla seachtain ó shin agus má tá vótaí i gcoinne an Bhreatimeachta le gnóthú sa toghchán Eorpach is ón UUP a thiocfaidh siad. Bhí an UUP i gcoinne an Bhreatimeachta in 2016 ach tá an páirtí ar a shon anois, de thairbhe gurb é sin ‘rogha na Ríochta Aontaithe trí chéile’. Mar bharr ar an donas, dúirt iarrthóir an pháirtí, Danny Kennedy, gur vótáil seisean ar son fanacht san Aontas Eorpach agus beidh sé doiligh an seasamh nua s’aige a dhíol le haontachtaithe atá ar son na hEorpa.

Bhí Colum Eastwood ón SDLP chun tosaigh ar Naomi Long agus Danny Kennedy i bpobalbhreith Lucid Talk agus beidh buntáiste leis sin nuair a bheas an croitheadh vótaí aistrithe ar siúl. Ach bhí figiúr suntasach ón phobalbhreith sin nó luaigh 42% den phainéal a vótálfadh do Shinn Féin go dtabharfadh siad uimhir 2 do Naomi Long. Cinnte, ní bheidh an oiread sin vótaí le haistriú ó Shinn Féin ach is comhartha sóirt don toghchán seo é.

Luaitear go minic an ‘vóta agóide’ a imríonn tionchar ar thoghcháin na hEorpa. Amharc ar na pobalbhreitheanna i Sasana agus an tacaíocht atá ag an Brexit Party (suas le 34% ag cuid acu) agus páirtí Theresa May sa cheathrú nó sa chúigiú háit.

Tá deis ag an tromlach ó thuaidh atá i gcoinne an Bhreatimeachta athreifreann samhlaíoch a bheith acu ar an 23 Bealtaine ach a gcuid vótaí a imirt go cliste ach beidh orthu smaoineamh as an nua má tá siad le suíochán an UUP a thabhairt leo. Go cinnte, is é sin an scéal a bheidh ag Naomi agus í ag bualadh ar na doirse sna laethanta deiridh roimh an vóta, Déardaoin.

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